^{* Note: This post was written by a guy who predicted Ryan Leaf would have a better pro career than Peyton Manning, so here… here’s one salt, grain of. Take it.}

Yesterday afternoon ESPN broadcast their Metaphorical Fellating of Reggie Bush NFL Draft Special, Part God-Knows-What. With the draft only a few days away, I’d figure I’d try to drop a little knowledge ’round here on what I think. Like that matters. Just a few observations from your football fan everyman…

1. OK ESPN. We get it. Reggie Bush is good. We know. But y’know what? I’m not sold on the USC phenom as an NFL player. I’ve heard very little from anyone in the way of Reggie’s weaknesses. He’s being coddled by the media as if he’s not only going to win Rookie of the Year honors and singlehandedly win the Texans the Super Bowl, but also build a 250,000 seat stadium to house his fans with his bare hands, play three positions at the same time and, for good measure, rid the world of Parkinson’s disease or something. Sorry, Houston, but we have a problem: he’s not going to do those things (only Leonard Pope can manage such tasks).

Bush’s greatest assets, his speed and cutting ability, won’t be as much of an asset at the pro level. His height works against him, too. While on film his physical stature reminds many of Gale Sayers, keep in mind Gale Sayers played back in the day when DE’s and LB’s didn’t have the combination of quickness and lateral movement they do today. Nowadays, if you want a quick back you need someone with a low center of gravity. He’s just not built to be a 15-20 carry guy. He can pose problems for defenses by shifting from the backfield to wideout on plays, but we’ll see how that works out after he gets popped across the middle a couple of times.

If Bush is going to be a star in this league, I think it’s going to be as a return guy; but what do I know.

2. So who’s this year’s Brady/Farve? You know, the mid-round QB that ends up being a star? A few guys that may just fit the bill:

• Kellen Clemens, Oregon¹: He’s the QB sleeper of this draft. Clemens was having an outstanding year before an injury cut his season short, but he still managed to put up over 2400 yards passing at a 64% completion clip with 19 TD’s and 4 INT’s. God only knows what kind of season he would have had had he not been injured and if he had a complement of players around him like Leinart had at USC.
• Darrell Hackney, UAB: I always root for the physical-oddity guys. Jared Lorenzen was the best thing that ever happened to Kentucky football - I watched that guy every chance I got. Hackney’s a roly-poly 240 pounds but just a close haircut away from being under 6 feet. Despite this, he’s a dad-gum good quarterback. He won’t be thrown into starting for at least a couple of years, so he’ll have time to develop further.
• Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson: At some point this guy has to make a legitimate, sustained impact, right? Right?? Chuk’s the type of player whose entire career path may be determined by the staff around him; if he’s picked by a team with a good, patient QB coach, he could blossom. Or not.

3. Overrateds/Underrateds:

• QB: Overrated: Vince Young. Underrated: Clemens.
• DB: Overrated: Ashton Youboty, tOSU. Underrated: DeMario Minter, UGA
• RB: Overrated: LenDale White, USC. Underrated: Joseph Addai, LSU
• LB: Overrated: Ernie Sims, FSU². Underrated: Demeco Ryans, Alabama

4. Rookie of the Year candidates:

• Mario Williams, NC State
• Chad Jackson, Florida
• Jimmy Williams, VA Tech
• Hedging my bet, I’ll put Reggie Bush in here as well.

ROY: Jackson.

UPDATE: Josh (Martians Attacking Indianapolis) has his first-round analysis up here.

^{1 Clemens will likely be the fourth or fifth QB taken, so admittedly he’s not a likely “mid-rounder” per se. Maybe “Under-The-Radar Guy” is a more apropos label.}

^{2 This is what you get for choosing Free Shoes U over Georgia.}